Does Home-Court Advantage Exist in the NBA? Analysis of Three Seasons After COVID-19

Abstract

This study explores whether home court advantage has an impact on the outcome of NBA games. Many believe that playing at home helps teams win more often due to fan support and the familiarity of the stadium. I analyzed data from the 2021–22, 2022–23, and 2023–24 NBA seasons and used machine learning models to predict game results based on factors like shooting percentages, win streaks, and whether the team was playing at home or away. The best-performing model, a Random Forest model, reached ~60% accuracy. The results showed that recent team performance was more important than where they played, suggesting that home court advantage exists but plays a smaller role than expected. This research helps show what really influences game outcomes in professional basketball.