Exploring the Future of the Barbastella Barbastellus with a Species Distribution Model

Abstract

The Barbastella Barbastellus(or Western Barbastelle) bat is a near threatened bat species which resides in Western Europe. A better understanding of its potential suitable habitats and distribution will aid in its conservation and to prevent habitat loss. We used a SDM(species distribution model) to predict the suitable habitats for the species using available occurrence data from GBIF, and then used environmental variables predictors(all nineteen bioclimatic variables, land cover, and elevation) to show habitats suitability and how climate change impacts the organism. The SDM showed that isothermality, temperature seasonality, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of coldest quarter had the biggest impacts on habitat suitability for the Barbastelle. Out of all these environmental variables, precipitation seasonality had the biggest impact on the species, and this was a negative relationship. So overall, the environmental effects of temperature and precipitation had the biggest impact on the Barbastelle. The SDM predicted the current suitable habitat for the bat is 1,330,846 square kilometers, and its future suitable habitat will be 1,050,913.6, undergoing a loss of 279,932 square kilometers, showing changes in temperature and precipitation. The SDM showed that the current suitable habitat range mainly occurred in the Western European areas around the Southern United Kingdom, France, Northern Spain, Western Germany, and countries around this area. The SDM then showed that in the future most suitable habitat loss would occur in the Southern areas of its current suitable habitat(Southern France and Spain). The SDM predicted that the suitable habitat for the Barbastelle would go northward, since most of its Southern habitats would disappear. In conclusion, this study recommends combat climate change which affects both precipitation and temperatures otherwise major parts of the Barbastella Barbastellus habitat would disappear.