Public Health Strategies for Disease Mitigation in the SIR Model

Abstract

As of January 2nd, 2023, the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, more commonly known as COVID-19, has infected and killed millions of Americans. While it is unlikely that a pandemic can be completely eradicated through the implementation of mitigation strategies, for the purpose of reducing public outbreaks and flattening the curve of the wave, many countries used mitigation measures, including social distancing, quarantining, and masking to control outbreaks before pharmaceutical interventions became available. The specific strategy of mitigation measures has varied among countries. Many countries, in particular, have resorted to implementing harsh mitigation strategies before gradually lifting them after infections have subsided. However, this strategy can often lead to the resurgence of infections, which can overwhelm healthcare capacities, and it is now clear that recurring periods with such a harsh mitigation strategy are needed. Therefore, it is of extreme value to study mitigation strategies that tackle several objectives: to impose the least burden to the population, minimize the overall number of infections during the duration of a pandemic, and stay under available hospital capacity. We proposed to use the average reduction in the reproduction rate over a mitigation strategy as the cost of that mitigation strategy. This study produces a more realistic set of options to inform public health policy to manage an infectious disease outbreak, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in a population.