Climate change has no significant negative effects on the suitable habitats for granular poison frog (Oophaga granulifera) according to species distribution modeling
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58445/rars.1744Keywords:
Oophaga granulifera, Granular poison frog, Climate change, Species distribution modeling, Suitable habitat, TemperatureAbstract
Almost half of amphibian species globally are experiencing population declines. Future climate change effects, such as prolonged droughts and increased temperatures, are expected to contribute to the decline of these species. The Oophaga granulifera (granular poison frog) located in Costa Rica in particular is an endangered frog species that is experiencing such declines. The O. granulifera controls the populations of small invertebrates, such as ants and mites, as their predators and are used as biodiversity indicators due to their sensitivity toward environmental changes. This study aims to determine potential distribution and habitat suitability of the O. granulifera by developing a species distribution model (SDM) to analyze the effects of climate change on the species between the present and the future (years 2061-2080). I collected occurrence records of O. granulifera from the Global Diversity Information Facility (GBIF) database and 19 climatic variables from the WorldClim database to produce a generalized linear model (GLM)—the model aimed to predict the effects of present and future climatic variables on the species distribution of O. granulifera. The SDM showed increased areas of suitable habitat from the present to the future, indicating that climate change may have no significant negative effects on the species distribution. Conservationists aiming to increase the O. granulifera population should focus on other factors that may contribute to their endangerment, such as habitat loss and diseases, since gradual climate change proved to not be a significant threats to population decline.
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