How does the use of Artificial Intelligence in global governance create risks for diplomacy and negotiations between great powers?

Abstract

This research examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on great-power diplomacy, i.e., how its advent would shift power equations in negotiations and global leadership. Although much research has been undertaken on AI in military uses, cyber defence, and ethics, relatively fewer research studies have been conducted on how it can shift trust-building, communication, and power equations in diplomacy. The research aims to address the gap below by comparing how great powers—the European Union, China, Russia, and the United States—go about searching for AI in their policy agenda and where policies diverge or meet when negotiating abroad.

Comparative literature review and theory analysis are utilized in the methodology. Realist, liberal institutionalist, and constructivist theses are utilized to apply to government utilization of AI: realists examine competitive arms races, liberals examine the need for multilateral agreements, and constructivists examine new practices and norms. Theoretical bridging theses to diplomatic practice, the research examines both potentialities and risks of AI in bargaining.
Transparency, credibility, verifiability, bias in algorithms, and amplifying crises through AI-driven decision-making or disinformation are some of the most important issues being argued. The report also mentions risks subject to further investigation, including the potential for AI to manipulate diplomatic messaging, enhance power imbalance, and undermine negotiating equity.

The research suggests that while AI can accelerate the spread of information and crisis control, it also holds the potential to introduce elephant-sized complexities to great-power diplomatic trust and institutional solidity. The article adds to AI scholarship with its diplomatic dimension map of AI governance, presenting an analytical model of its effects on great-power relations, and making a call for governance frameworks balancing innovation and integrity guarantees in diplomacy.