Evaluating the Effectiveness of Current Technologies for Natural Disaster Detection and Early Warning Systems

Abstract

Natural disasters—including earthquakes, tsunamis, tropical cyclones, floods, wildfires, and volcanic eruptions—cause extensive loss of life and economic damage every year. Early-warning technologies have become indispensable tools for mitigating these impacts. This paper provides a comprehensive, 70 % technical and 30 % policy evaluation of current detection and early-warning systems (EWS) worldwide, with in-depth case studies of Japan’s Earthquake Early Warning service and India’s cyclone-warning network. Drawing on a mixed body of academic literature, government reports, and international agency data (2020-2025), we examine key technological components—satellite remote sensing, ground-based sensor networks, Internet-of-Things (IoT) instrumentation, numerical and machine-learning models—and their effectiveness in reducing hazard exposure. We then analyze governance factors such as legal mandates, interagency coordination, public education, and the Sendai Framework’s Target G. Findings show that areas with dense sensor coverage, rapid data processing, and practiced response protocols achieve dramatic drops in disaster mortality (e.g., Japan’s EEW saves ~10–20 % of potential casualties; India’s cyclone deaths fell by > 95 % since the 1999 Odisha super-cyclone). Yet roughly one-third of the global population—especially in least-developed countries and small-island states—remains beyond reliable early-warning coverage. Persistent barriers include maintenance gaps, data sparsity, false-alarm fatigue, and limited “last-mile” communication infrastructure. The paper concludes that future EWS effectiveness depends on a holistic strategy combining ubiquitous sensing, impact-based forecasting, inclusive governance, and community engagement, aligned with the United Nations’ “Early Warnings for All” initiative. Recommendations include expanding multi-hazard integration, leveraging AI responsibly, closing financing gaps, and embedding early warning into climate-adaptation planning.