Climate Change Induced Habitat Contraction in Critically Endangered European Eel Habitat: A Species Distribution Model Analysis

Abstract

The European Eel, Anguilla anguilla, is critically endangered due to overexploitation, habitat loss, and climate change. This study aims to model the species’ habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios to guide conservation efforts. Using a species distribution model (SDM) with occurrence records (n = 7,869) from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and environmental variables from the WorldClim database (19 bioclimatic variables) alongside an extensive literature review, we effectively determine habitat suitability and the impact of climate change on the species. The SDM showed a high predictive performance with an AUC value of 0.981, and the modeling determined that significant predictors of suitability included various temperature and precipitation variables, highlighting the European Eel’s sensitivity to climatic conditions. Results further indicate a considerable reduction in suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, with notable contractions in current habitable areas. Future projections identify potential refuge areas with less climate impact, which is crucial for targeted conservation efforts. The findings underscore the urgency of implementing adaptive conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on A. Anguilla. The study provides a scientific basis for habitat protection and policy development to ensure the species’ long-term survival.