Estimating Bulgaria’s 2023 Bright Economy Composite Index

Insights Into the Size of Hidden Economy

Abstract

This study estimates Bulgaria’s Bright Economy Composite Index (BECI) value, a crucial tool for assessing the transparency and formalization of economic activities in the country. By analyzing both the statistical and sociological indicators that BECI comprises, the paper examines the trends in Bulgaria’s bright economy and infers about the scope and size of the country's hidden economy. This research paper employs four methods of statistical estimation in order to predict BECI for 2023 based on past data and trends, as well as multiple scenarios that could have caused the composite index to deviate from its natural progression. By utilizing different variations and extracts from the complete dataset to ensure robustness and accuracy, this study forecasts that the estimated BECI 2023 value will be in the 78.19-80.50 range, implying the hidden economy accounts for about 20% of economic activity. The paper’s findings suggest that while Bulgaria has made progress in brightening its economy, significant challenges remain, particularly in sectors prone to informal activities, highlighting the need for continued governmental efforts to reduce the hidden economy through targeted policies and increased transparency. The paper concludes by outlining potential avenues for future research, such as expanding the application of BECI to other sectors, exploring cross-country comparisons, and examining the impact of digital transformation on the hidden economy.